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Are Rate Cuts Over? What the Latest BoC News Means for Alberta Homebuyers

November 17, 2025

Inflation is easing, but rate cuts may be over. Here’s how Alberta homebuyers can plan their next mortgage move.
Young man thinking, rates stable next month

By Josh Tagg, mortgage broker · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage · Calgary, serving all of Alberta ·

Interest rates are back in the spotlight, and both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve are signalling that we may be near the end of the 2025 rate-cut cycle. For Alberta buyers, this affects mortgage rates, affordability, and how you should plan your next move. Here is a clear update on what is happening and how working with me, Josh Tagg, can help you make the best decision.

Quick answer: As of mid-November 2025, both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve had cut on October 29 and signalled they may be near the end of the cycle. Markets saw less than a 10 percent chance of a Bank of Canada cut on December 10, and the policy rate stood at 2.25 percent. Bank forecasts ranged from more cuts to hikes in late 2026, so a forecast is not a rate. Five-year fixed rates offered slightly better value and stability, while variable suited borrowers comfortable with short-term uncertainty.

Are central banks done cutting rates?

The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate on October 29, but it also said the current rate is likely at the right level unless new economic data changes the outlook. Because of that, markets now see less than a 10 percent chance of another rate cut on December 10.

The US Federal Reserve is sending the same message. Even though it cut rates on October 29, the Fed is warning that more cuts are not guaranteed. A recent US government shutdown delayed key economic data, making the Fed more cautious than usual. “But Josh, why should we care what the US is doing?” Canada should care—a lot—when the US Federal Reserve cuts its policy rate. Even though the Fed doesn’t set Canadian interest rates, its decisions strongly influence our economy and, in turn, the Bank of Canada’s choices.

The bottom line is that both central banks are tapping the brakes and waiting for clearer information.

What does this mean for mortgage rates in Alberta?

A woman at a desk using a calculator with one hand and holding a small model house with the other, printed charts spread in front of her
Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, so a small rise in yields kept fixed rates from moving lower.

Government of Canada bond yields increased slightly. Since fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, this has kept fixed rates from moving lower.

Variable-rate discounts did not change. While another cut in 2025 is unlikely, I still expect the Bank of Canada to reduce its rate by at least another 0.25 percent before this cycle ends.

This month’s inflation reading is especially important. It is the last full inflation report before the Bank of Canada’s December 10 announcement. Another report comes on December 15, but the decision will already be made by then. The report showed mixed but mostly positive news. Headline inflation dropped to 2.2 percent, and two of the Bank of Canada’s important core measures also fell. However, one core measure rose to 2.9 percent, which adds pressure on the Bank to hold rates steady for now.

With mixed data, the most likely result is a rate hold in December.

Should you choose a fixed or variable rate right now?

Three- and five-year fixed rates remain close to their long-term average. If the rates stay similar, the five-year fixed still offers slightly better value and stability.

Variable rates may end up being the lowest-cost option over the full mortgage term, but only for borrowers who are comfortable with short-term uncertainty. Variable rates can move up and down, so make sure your budget can handle either scenario.

If you are unsure which option fits you best, I can run the numbers with you and help compare your choices. Send me a message to get started.

What are Canada’s big banks predicting?

A woman tapping a card on a payment terminal at a bank teller's counter, a teller in a shirt and tie behind a clear divider
In November 2025 the big banks’ calls ranged from one more quarter-point cut to two rate hikes in late 2026.

Not all banks agree on what happens next:

• Scotiabank thinks the Bank of Canada is done cutting and expects two rate hikes in late 2026
• TD, RBC, and CIBC expect rates to stay at 2.25 percent through 2026
• BMO and National Bank still expect one more 0.25 percent cut

These differences show how uncertain the outlook is. That is why having an experienced mortgage broker like me in your corner matters more than ever.

Why should Alberta buyers work with a mortgage broker now?

Markets are moving, inflation is shifting, and expert forecasts are divided. Getting clear, unbiased advice can save you thousands and help you feel confident in your plan.

As your Alberta mortgage broker, I can help you:

• Monitor rate changes and lender specials
• Compare fixed and variable options for your situation
• Lock in the best available rate before markets shift
• Understand your budget and approval options
• Reduce stress and avoid surprises during the homebuying process

If you’re thinking about buying in 2025 or 2026—or renewing your mortgage soon—now is the right time to talk strategy. Send me a message to get started today.

How an Alberta mortgage broker helps when the rate outlook is divided

Nobody can promise where rates go next. You can still pick a mortgage that holds up either way:

  • We compare fixed and variable on today’s actual rates, not last month’s headlines.
  • We stress-test the payment so your budget can handle a move up or down.
  • We arrange a rate hold while you shop, so a jump in bond yields doesn’t cost you.
  • We watch lender specials across many lenders, not one bank’s shelf.
  • We work with buyers and owners across Calgary, Edmonton and all of Alberta.

Deciding between fixed and variable?

Let’s run the numbers on both and see which fits your budget.

Apply Online → Book a Discovery Call → Serving Calgary, Edmonton & all of Alberta · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage

The Bank of Canada rate outlook: common questions

Are Bank of Canada rate cuts over?
As of mid-November 2025, the Bank of Canada had cut its policy rate on October 29 and said the current rate was likely at the right level unless new economic data changed the outlook. Markets saw less than a 10 percent chance of another cut on December 10. That was a forecast, not a decision.
Why does the US Federal Reserve matter to Canadian mortgage rates?
The Fed doesn’t set Canadian interest rates, but its decisions strongly influence the Canadian economy and, in turn, the Bank of Canada’s choices. In late 2025 the Fed also cut on October 29 and warned that more cuts were not guaranteed.
Why didn’t fixed mortgage rates fall?
Fixed mortgage rates follow Government of Canada bond yields. Bond yields increased slightly, which kept fixed rates from moving lower.
What did the November 2025 inflation report show?
Headline inflation dropped to 2.2 percent and two of the Bank of Canada’s core measures fell, but one core measure rose to 2.9 percent. With mixed data, the most likely result was a rate hold in December.
Should I choose a fixed or variable mortgage rate?
With three- and five-year fixed rates close to their long-term average, the five-year fixed offered slightly better value and stability. Variable rates may end up the lowest-cost option over the full term, but only for borrowers comfortable with short-term uncertainty whose budget can handle rates moving up or down.
What were Canada’s big banks forecasting for rates?
They disagreed. Scotiabank expected the Bank of Canada was done cutting and forecast two hikes in late 2026. TD, RBC and CIBC expected rates to stay at 2.25 percent through 2026. BMO and National Bank still expected one more 0.25 percent cut.

This article is general information for Alberta homebuyers and homeowners, not financial, mortgage or legal advice. It reflects rates, data and forecasts available in mid-November 2025; conditions have changed since, and future rate decisions cannot be predicted with certainty. Any mortgage is subject to lender approval. Please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific situation. Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage.

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