If you’re a first-time home buyer in Calgary or anywhere in Alberta, you’re likely feeling a bit uneasy about whether now is the right time to jump into the market. You’re not alone. According to new research from Oxford Economics, Canada’s housing slowdown isn’t just a phase—it could stretch well into 2026 if trade tensions with the U.S. aren’t resolved.
But what does this mean for first-time buyers in Alberta? And how should you be preparing?
A National Housing Slump, Felt Locally
Oxford’s latest projections show that resale activity across Canada is down roughly 15% from the five-year average, with home prices correcting between 8–10% in some of the country’s most expensive markets. While Alberta hasn’t seen the same sharp price drops as Toronto or Vancouver, we’re not immune to the broader trend.
Here in Calgary, we’ve seen home sales slow and inventory creep upward. This creates a double-edged sword: buyers may face better prices and more selection, but also tighter lending conditions and increased economic anxiety.
Construction Cooling, Condos Struggling
New home construction is also slowing. Oxford expects housing starts to dip to 225,000 units in 2025, down from 245,000 this year and well below pandemic highs. Condo markets, in particular, are under pressure. “The condo market right now is a mess,” said Tony Stillo of Oxford Economics, noting that many investors may be forced to sell at a loss.
This could open doors for first-time buyers—but only if financing is in place and expectations are realistic.
Affordability Is Still the Elephant in the Room
While falling prices may sound like good news, affordability remains a serious hurdle. Borrowing costs are still high, and down payments can feel out of reach—especially for younger buyers without access to family help.
“We’re hearing more and more reports of buyers leaning on family funds to meet down payment requirements,” Stillo said.
As a mortgage broker working with first-time buyers in Calgary every day, I can tell you: now is the time to explore creative financing options—whether that’s using the First Home Savings Account (FHSA), co-buying with family, or accessing equity through a gifted down payment.
Why Trade Tensions Matter to You
It might seem like U.S.-Canada trade talks don’t impact your home search—but they do. Tariffs and falling exports are weakening economic growth, pushing the Bank of Canada into a corner. Even if interest rates drop slightly (Oxford expects at most a 0.25–0.50% cut), we’re unlikely to see the ultra-low rates of the pandemic return any time soon.
Consumer confidence is fragile, and many households are reining in spending. The Bank of Canada’s latest surveys show that two-thirds of Canadians expect a recession within the next 12 months. That kind of sentiment affects everything from hiring to lending policies—which can directly impact your mortgage approval.
What First-Time Buyers Should Do Right Now
If you’re planning to buy your first home in Alberta, here’s how to stay proactive:
- Get Pre-Approved Early
Don’t wait for prices or rates to move. Get pre-approved now so you understand your options and your maximum affordability. - Lock in Rates Where You Can
Rate holds give you breathing room—especially in a volatile economy. - Consider New Builds or Condos
With new supply coming online and prices softening, this could be an opportunity if you’re flexible with your timeline or location. - Leverage Every Program Available
From FHSAs to First-Time Home Buyer Incentives, take advantage of federal and provincial supports. - Work with a Mortgage Broker Who Knows the Local Market
Every buyer’s situation is unique—especially in an economy like this. A knowledgeable broker can help you navigate lender options, understand conditions, and structure your mortgage for flexibility.
Final Thoughts
The headlines may sound grim, but for prepared first-time buyers in Calgary and across Alberta, there’s still a path forward. Markets are shifting. And while uncertainty remains high, uncertainty often creates opportunity—if you’re ready.
Have questions about where to start or whether now is the right time for you to buy? I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you build a plan. Reach out anytime.
