The Calgary housing market has had a lot of speculation this year, especially since the tariff war started in the spring. One of the biggest indicators for change in interest rates has been the Bank of Canada rate announcements, the next of which is coming up on September 17. But what will the central bank do — cut rates, or hold steady?

The short answer: speculators are split, but most believe a rate cut isn’t a sure thing yet. Here’s what’s driving the debate.

Housing Market Showing Signs of Life

Let’s start with the good news. After a rough start to 2025, the Canadian housing market is beginning to stabilize. In July, home sales in several major cities pointed to a national increase of around 6%. Federally, sales are now outpacing new listings, hinting that house prices may be finding a floor.

In Calgary, sales have remained steady while inventory has creeped up — but if rates do drop, demand could heat up again. However, this recovery is still fragile and depends on broader economic health.

Weak Jobs Report Clouds the Outlook

July’s employment report was disappointing, with 41,000 jobs lost across Canada, reversing much of June’s surprise gain. The decline was concentrated in youth unemployment (aged 15-24), which jumped to 14.6% — the highest since 2010 outside of the pandemic.

Economists agree this shows a softer economy, but most say it’s not enough on its own to push the Bank of Canada toward an immediate September cut. Inflation remains the bigger driver of the Bank’s decisions.

Inflation, Trade, and Tariffs Are the Wild Cards

Even with weaker jobs data, several forces are keeping the Bank cautious about cutting rates too soon:

• Tariffs and supply-chain disruptions are driving up prices on goods.
• Consumer spending hasn’t slowed enough to bring inflation down quickly.
• Energy costs are rebounding, adding pressure to household and business budgets.
• Trade uncertainty with the U.S. is weighing on exports, with compliance issues under the CUSMA agreement causing further drag.

Meanwhile, major government spending on both sides of the border has bond markets worried about long-term borrowing costs — another reason the Bank might hold steady.

What the Markets Are Saying

As of August 8, rate-watchers are giving the following odds for the September 17 meeting:

• 28% chance of a 0.25% rate cut
• 72% chance of no change

For context, a probability over 60% is usually considered a strong signal for action. That means most traders still expect the Bank to hold at 2.75% next month, barring any major surprises in the upcoming inflation and GDP reports.

What This Means for Calgary Home Buyers

If you’re shopping for a home in Calgary right now, the September announcement could slightly shift your mortgage rate — but it’s unlikely to be a huge swing unless the Bank surprises us with a cut.

• Variable-rate borrowers could see a drop in payments as a result of a cut.
• Fixed-rate borrowers are more influenced by bond yields, which may move ahead of the decision if markets sense a shift.

For now, keep an eye on the data coming in over the next few weeks. If inflation cools faster than expected, the odds of a cut could climb. But if prices remain sticky, the Bank may hold until later this year (October or December) or until 2026.

Calgary’s housing market is steadying for now, but economic uncertainty and inflation pressures make a September rate cut less than certain. If you’re ready to buy, it might make sense to lock in a rate soon. Reach out to talk with me about your specific circumstances and what options I think would best suit your goals.