With another Bank of Canada interest rate decision just weeks away, many Edmonton home buyers are watching closely. In a recent video discussion, I joined Jay Lewis to talk about what’s likely to happen on September 17th—and what it could mean for mortgages in our city.

Announcement in Tandem with U.S. Fed

Jay opened the conversation by asking what to expect

“So here we are, just under a month until the rate announcement. What are they going to do next? Josh, give us an idea of what you think is going to happen here in this next month.”

I explained that the timing of this announcement is important—not only because it coincides with a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, but also because it could mark the first Bank of Canada rate cut in six months.

“The next rate announcement is on September 17th,” I said. “Last time we had a rate drop was in March. Since then, we’re down two and a quarter percent from the high point. That’s more than the U.S., where rates have only come down by one and a quarter percent.”

Rate Drop Ahead

So what are the odds of another rate cut? In the U.S., markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a quarter-point cut in September. In Canada, the odds are lower—sitting at about 35%. Still, with only three Bank of Canada announcements left this year, I explained there’s a strong case for more movement.

“We might see one in September,” I said. “If not, then probably one in early October, and maybe even another in December.”

Jay summed it up this way: “So I guess what we’re going to look forward to is, do we see two? Do we see one? How soon do we see it?”

The Inflation Factor

The answer depends largely on inflation. The Bank of Canada’s target is between 1.5% and 2.5%. In July, headline inflation came in at 1.7%, which was lower than expected. But the “trim” measure—one that strips out the most extreme price changes—sits closer to 3%.

“That’s still some cause for concern,” I noted. “But the headline number being lower should give the Bank of Canada enough wiggle room to reasonably drop the rate without a big fear of inflation spiking.”

Edmonton Buyers

For first-time buyers in Edmonton, the next few months could be crucial. Lower rates mean lower borrowing costs, which could help offset high home prices. But with uncertainty around the timing, planning ahead matters.

As Jay wrapped up the discussion, he reminded viewers that we’ll be back with updates:

“On the day of the rate announcement, we’ll certainly tell you what’s going on. For now, we just sit back and see what happens.”

The Waiting Game

For Edmonton buyers considering their first mortgage, the key takeaway is this: keep an eye on September 17th. Whether the cut happens then—or later in the fall—there’s a good chance rates will move down again before year’s end. And when they do, it could be the right moment to step into the market.

Head over to YouTube to watch this video and more on our channel, Edmonton Home Team.