The Edmonton real estate market in September 2024 paints an intriguing picture for buyers and sellers alike. While the national housing market remains robust with an average home price of $717,000, Edmonton continues to stand out as a more affordable option. With an average price of $440,000 for all property types, Edmonton remains $277,000 cheaper than the national average. This affordability, combined with stable incomes, makes Edmonton one of the more accessible real estate markets in Canada.

Inventory Shifts and Market Trends

One of the most notable shifts in the market is the reduction in inventory. September saw a 4.5% drop in new listings compared to August, signaling a tightening market. While new listings are still up 6.5% year-over-year, this recent decline reflects an interesting trend. Builders are also adjusting their strategies, holding onto properties in anticipation of rising prices, which is contributing to a decrease in available homes for buyers.

With inventory shrinking, the dynamics of the market have changed. Buyers are facing fewer choices, and this reduced selection is leading some to pause their purchasing decisions. Many are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how interest rates and housing prices will evolve in the coming months. The uncertainty surrounding interest rate changes has led to a more cautious approach among prospective buyers.

Sales Volume Decline and What It Means

Sales numbers also tell an important story. Edmonton’s sales volume dropped by 22.5% in September compared to the previous month. This decline might seem alarming at first, but when looking at the year-to-date numbers, there is still a 10% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This indicates that while the market may be cooling down slightly, it has been performing strongly overall throughout the year.

The drop in sales is not solely due to declining interest from buyers. Builders, aware of potential future price hikes, have been more cautious in releasing new inventory. Many are holding back, anticipating better selling conditions ahead. This reduction in available homes for purchase is likely contributing to the sales decline, as potential buyers have fewer options to choose from.

Days on Market: A Key Indicator of Market Activity

Another critical metric in understanding the health of a real estate market is the number of days homes spend on the market. For detached homes in Edmonton, the average time on the market was 37 days in September, showing a slight increase from August. However, when comparing year-over-year data, this number remains quite stable, reflecting overall market health despite seasonal fluctuations.

Other property types, such as semi-detached and row houses, are showing even faster movement. Semi-detached homes spent an average of just 7 days on the market, while row houses moved within 6 days. These faster sales times highlight strong demand for these property types, even as detached homes experience a bit more variation.

Price Growth and Market Projections

When it comes to pricing, the Edmonton market has shown remarkable resilience. Detached homes saw an average price of $507,000 in September, a significant $10,000 increase from the previous month, marking one of the largest month-over-month jumps seen this year. This is a positive indicator for sellers, suggesting that Edmonton’s housing market remains competitive despite some of the short-term shifts in other areas.

Semi-detached homes, while down slightly by 1.4% month-over-month, are still up an impressive 16.3% year-over-year, showcasing strong longer-term growth. Similarly, row houses have seen a steady 7.5% increase year-over-year, while apartment condos have experienced a 12% rise over the same period. These numbers suggest that Edmonton’s real estate market continues to offer solid investment potential, particularly for those interested in purchasing property types beyond detached homes.

Interest Rates and the Future of the Market

Looking ahead, interest rates will play a significant role in shaping the Edmonton real estate market. With the Bank of Canada expected to introduce rate cuts later in 2024, both fixed and variable mortgage rates are likely to decrease. This could lead to renewed interest from buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers who may have been priced out of the market due to higher borrowing costs.

Additionally, the introduction of 30-year amortizations in December 2024 will further increase affordability for many buyers. These extended amortizations will allow for lower monthly mortgage payments, making homeownership more attainable for a broader segment of the population. As a result, Edmonton could see an uptick in demand as we move into 2025, potentially driving prices higher as more buyers re-enter the market.

Conclusion: What September 2024 Tells Us

Edmonton’s real estate market in September 2024 reveals a city that remains affordable compared to the rest of Canada, but one where supply is tightening, and prices are beginning to edge upward. While sales are down in the short term, year-over-year growth remains strong, and the market’s fundamentals appear solid. With potential interest rate cuts on the horizon and the promise of 30-year amortizations, buyers may soon find themselves with more favorable conditions.

For now, Edmonton remains an attractive destination for homebuyers, offering a combination of affordability, stable price growth, and opportunities for those looking to enter the market before conditions potentially heat up again.

If you’re considering buying or selling a home in Edmonton, now is the time to stay informed and be prepared. As always, market conditions can change quickly, so staying ahead of trends will help you make the best decisions for your real estate journey.