By Josh Tagg, mortgage broker · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage · Calgary, serving all of Alberta ·
When Jay Lewis and I sat down to record a video on September 8th, the Bank of Canada’s upcoming rate announcement was top of mind. At the time, the chances of a cut on September 17th had jumped from just 35 per cent two weeks ago to an overwhelming 85 per cent. That’s almost a sure thing for a quarter-point rate drop, with expectations for another cut by December and possibly more by April.
For Edmonton’s first-time home buyers, this is big news. Lower interest rates mean more affordable mortgages—but the reasons behind these cuts are a mix of what I call “the big bad thing” and “the big good thing.”
Why is rising unemployment the “big bad thing”?
“The employment data came out for August and… we saw unemployment hit the highest level it has since August of 2021,” I explained in the video. Canada’s unemployment rate now sits at 7.1 per cent, the highest since the height of the pandemic.
Ontario has been hit hardest, with Windsor, Oshawa, and Toronto topping the list at 11, 9, and 8.9 per cent unemployment respectively. While Alberta hasn’t escaped the downturn, the bigger concern is what this data means for rate policy.
“We don’t really want unemployment to be the reason the Bank of Canada needs to cut its rates,” I added. “It’s only good for those of us who are working, those of you who are well qualified for a mortgage and could benefit from the lower rates that come with it. But this isn’t something that we’re cheering about.”
Why is inflation the “big good thing”?
On the brighter side, inflation is moving in the right direction. “Inflation seems to be cooperating,” I said. “It’s staying at three and under three per cent. The total CPI inflation is actually under two per cent.”
A key factor here is trade. With Canada dropping some counter-tariffs on imports, we’ve seen relief on consumer costs and renewed trade negotiations. That gives the Bank of Canada more breathing room to cut rates without fuelling runaway inflation.
What does this mean for first-time home buyers in Edmonton?
For those of you looking to buy your first home in Edmonton, these shifts could open a window of opportunity. Falling bond yields are already putting downward pressure on fixed mortgage rates, and with the Bank of Canada expected to act, borrowing could become more affordable in the months ahead.
But as I reminded Jay during our conversation, the bigger picture matters. Rate cuts help qualified buyers, but they’re being driven by economic challenges like job losses. If you’re considering a purchase, it’s worth sitting down with a mortgage broker who can guide you through what these changes mean for your situation.
Where can you watch the full conversation?
Jay and I dive into these details—and what to watch for next—on our YouTube channel. You can view the full video here: Edmonton Home Team
If you find it helpful, don’t forget to like, subscribe, and leave a comment. Your support helps us keep creating content to guide Edmonton buyers through these important decisions.
How an Alberta mortgage broker helps when rates are moving
A rate cut on the horizon changes what you can afford. A broker shows you by how much:
- Run your numbers on fixed rates, which follow bond yields, and variable rates, which follow the Bank of Canada.
- Get a pre-approval with a rate hold, so you keep today’s rate if rates go up instead of down.
- Shop multiple lenders across Edmonton, Calgary and the rest of Alberta.
- Check your job stability and income against what a lender will ask for before you write an offer.
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Apply Online → Book a Discovery Call → Serving Calgary, Edmonton & all of Alberta · Mortgages for Less with INDI MortgageQuestions about the September 2025 rate cut outlook
How likely was a Bank of Canada rate cut on September 17, 2025?
Why was unemployment pushing the Bank of Canada to cut?
What was happening with inflation?
Were fixed mortgage rates already falling?
Is a rate cut driven by job losses good news for buyers?
Where can I watch Josh Tagg and Jay Lewis discuss the rate cut?
This article was written on September 12, 2025, before the Bank of Canada’s September 17 decision. Rates, bond yields, odds and economic figures quoted are from that time and have since changed. It is general information for Alberta home buyers, not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Rates, products and qualification rules vary by lender. Please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific circumstances. Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage.
