By Josh Tagg, mortgage broker · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage · Calgary, serving all of Alberta ·
If you’re a first-time home buyer in Calgary or anywhere in Alberta, you’re likely feeling a bit uneasy about whether now is the right time to jump into the market. You’re not alone.
According to new research from Oxford Economics, Canada’s housing slowdown isn’t just a phase—it could stretch well into 2026 if trade tensions with the U.S. aren’t resolved.
But what does this mean for first-time buyers in Alberta? And how should you be preparing?
Is Canada’s housing slump being felt in Calgary?
Oxford’s latest projections show that resale activity across Canada is down roughly 15% from the five-year average, with home prices correcting between 8–10% in some of the country’s most expensive markets. While Alberta hasn’t seen the same sharp price drops as Toronto or Vancouver, we’re not immune to the broader trend.
Here in Calgary, we’ve seen home sales slow and inventory creep upward. This creates a double-edged sword: buyers may face better prices and more selection, but also tighter lending conditions and increased economic anxiety.
Why are new construction and condos struggling?
New home construction is also slowing. Oxford expects housing starts to dip to 225,000 units in 2025, down from 245,000 this year and well below pandemic highs. Condo markets, in particular, are under pressure. “The condo market right now is a mess,” said Tony Stillo of Oxford Economics, noting that many investors may be forced to sell at a loss.
This could open doors for first-time buyers—but only if financing is in place and expectations are realistic.
If prices are falling, why is affordability still a problem?
While falling prices may sound like good news, affordability remains a serious hurdle. Borrowing costs are still high, and down payments can feel out of reach—especially for younger buyers without access to family help.
“We’re hearing more and more reports of buyers leaning on family funds to meet down payment requirements,” Stillo said.
As a mortgage broker working with first-time buyers in Calgary every day, I can tell you: now is the time to explore creative financing options—whether that’s using the First Home Savings Account (FHSA), co-buying with family, or accessing equity through a gifted down payment.
How do U.S.-Canada trade tensions affect your mortgage?
It might seem like U.S.-Canada trade talks don’t impact your home search—but they do. Tariffs and falling exports are weakening economic growth, pushing the Bank of Canada into a corner. Even if interest rates drop slightly (Oxford expects at most a 0.25–0.50% cut), we’re unlikely to see the ultra-low rates of the pandemic return any time soon.
Consumer confidence is fragile, and many households are reining in spending. The Bank of Canada’s latest surveys show that two-thirds of Canadians expect a recession within the next 12 months. That kind of sentiment affects everything from hiring to lending policies—which can directly impact your mortgage approval.
What should first-time buyers do right now?
If you’re planning to buy your first home in Alberta, here’s how to stay proactive:
- Get Pre-Approved Early
Don’t wait for prices or rates to move. Get pre-approved now so you understand your options and your maximum affordability. - Lock in Rates Where You Can
Rate holds give you breathing room—especially in a volatile economy. - Consider New Builds or Condos
With new supply coming online and prices softening, this could be an opportunity if you’re flexible with your timeline or location. - Leverage Every Program Available
From FHSAs to First-Time Home Buyer Incentives, take advantage of federal and provincial supports. - Work with a Mortgage Broker Who Knows the Local Market
Every buyer’s situation is unique—especially in an economy like this. A knowledgeable broker can help you navigate lender options, understand conditions, and structure your mortgage for flexibility.
Is there still a path forward for Calgary buyers?
The headlines may sound grim, but for prepared first-time buyers in Calgary and across Alberta, there’s still a path forward. Markets are shifting. And while uncertainty remains high, uncertainty often creates opportunity—if you’re ready.
Have questions about where to start or whether now is the right time for you to buy? I’d be happy to walk you through your options and help you build a plan. Reach out anytime.
How a Calgary mortgage broker helps first-time buyers in a slow market
A softer market rewards buyers who have their financing sorted first. We help with:
- A pre-approval and rate hold so you know your budget and have breathing room if rates move.
- Down payment planning, including FHSA withdrawals, gifts from family and co-buying.
- New build and condo financing, where lender rules on deposits, completion dates and condo fees differ.
- Your file matched to the right lender for buyers in Calgary, Edmonton and across Alberta.
Thinking about buying your first home in Calgary?
Get pre-approved and find out what you can afford before you start shopping.
Apply Online → Book a Discovery Call → Serving Calgary, Edmonton & all of Alberta · Mortgages for Less with INDI MortgageQuestions about buying in a housing slump
How long did Oxford Economics expect Canada’s housing slump to last?
Did Calgary home prices drop as much as Toronto or Vancouver?
Is a slow housing market good for first-time buyers?
Why do trade tensions with the U.S. matter for my mortgage?
What should first-time buyers in Alberta do in a slow market?
How can I come up with a down payment when prices are high?
This article was written on July 23, 2025, using Oxford Economics projections reported at the time; the “What happened next” note was added later. Rates, market conditions, programs and lender policies change. This is general information, not financial advice; please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific circumstances. Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage.
