By Josh Tagg, mortgage broker · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage · Calgary, serving all of Alberta ·
Quick answer: Canada lost 68,000 jobs in September 2026 and unemployment rose to 6.5%, while Alberta added 23,000 jobs and its unemployment rate fell to 6.4%. For your mortgage, the weak national number lowered the odds of a Bank of Canada hike on October 28, which is good news if you’re variable. It hasn’t made fixed rates cheaper, because those follow the bond market, and bond yields barely moved.
Same report, two very different stories. Here’s Josh on what it means if you’re buying or renewing in Alberta.
What did the September jobs report say?
Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for September 2026 came out on October 9 (Statistics Canada):
September 2026 Labour Force Survey
| Canada | Alberta | |
|---|---|---|
| Jobs, change from August | -68,000 (-0.3%) | +23,000 (+0.9%) |
| Unemployment rate | 6.5%, up 0.1 points | 6.4%, down 0.4 points |
Economists polled by Reuters had expected a gain of about 9,200 jobs. Nationally, the losses were concentrated in the public sector: public-sector employees fell by 70,000, led by educational services (-35,000) and health care and social assistance (-23,000). Private-sector employment was little changed for a second month. Alberta’s 23,000 was the largest job gain of any province.
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates on October 28?
Less likely than it looked a week ago. Before the report, markets put the odds of a quarter-point hike on October 28 at roughly 40%. Within hours of the release, that fell to about 25%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters (Wealth Professional). The Bank’s policy rate is 2.25% (Bank of Canada).
One more report could change that: September’s inflation numbers come out on Monday, October 19 (Statistics Canada release schedule).
What does it mean for your mortgage?
If you’re variable, your rate moves with prime, and prime only moves when the Bank of Canada does. A lower chance of a hike is good news, but it isn’t a promise. Here’s what a quarter-point hike would do to an adjustable-payment variable mortgage, using the best uninsured 5-year variable we tracked as of September 30, 2026:
$400,000 mortgage, 25-year amortization
| Rate | Monthly payment | |
|---|---|---|
| Variable today | 3.95% | about $2,094 |
| Variable after a 0.25-point hike | 4.20% | about $2,148 |
| 5-year fixed, for comparison | 4.94% | about $2,313 |
A hike would add about $54 a month. Even then, the variable payment would still be well below the fixed one. That gap is what Josh means when he says the spread between fixed and variable is getting big.
If you’re shopping for a fixed rate, don’t expect a discount from this report. Fixed rates are priced off bond yields, not the Bank of Canada. The 5-year Government of Canada yield slipped from 3.60% on October 8 to 3.54% on October 9, and was 3.53% on October 15 (Bank of Canada). That’s too small a move to show up in fixed mortgage rates on its own.
Why is Alberta different?
Because the province’s economy is running ahead of the country’s. In June, ATB Financial forecast Alberta’s real GDP would grow 2.6% in 2026, against 0.8% for Canada as a whole (ATB Financial). September’s jobs numbers fit that picture.
It won’t lower your mortgage rate: variable rates follow the Bank of Canada and fixed rates follow the bond market, and both respond to the national picture. What it does mean is that if you’re buying or renewing here in the next few months, your job market is steadier than the national headline suggests. One month of jobs data can bounce around, so treat it as one data point, not a trend.
When doesn’t this apply?
If you work in education or health care, the national public-sector losses are closer to home than the Alberta total suggests. If you’re on a fixed rate that isn’t up for renewal soon, nothing in this report changes your payment. And if your income is variable, like overtime, commission or self-employment, how a lender reads your income matters more to your approval than any one month of jobs data.
Frequently asked questions
How many jobs did Canada lose in September 2026?
68,000, according to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey released October 9. The national unemployment rate rose 0.1 points to 6.5%.
How many jobs did Alberta add in September 2026?
23,000, the largest gain of any province. Alberta’s unemployment rate fell 0.4 points to 6.4%, below the national rate.
Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in October 2026?
It’s less likely after the jobs report. Market odds of a quarter-point hike on October 28 fell from roughly 40% to about 25%, according to LSEG data reported by Reuters. The September inflation report on October 19 could still shift them.
Will fixed mortgage rates go down after the jobs report?
Not on this report alone. Fixed rates follow bond yields, and the 5-year Government of Canada yield only slipped from 3.60% to 3.54% on the day.
Should I choose fixed or variable right now?
It depends on your file. Variable starts lower but can rise if the Bank of Canada hikes. Fixed costs more today but won’t change during your term. Run both on your own numbers before deciding.
Buying or renewing this fall?
We’ll run fixed and variable side by side on your mortgage, including what a hike would do to the variable payment, so you can choose with the numbers in front of you.
This is commentary, not advice. Figures as of October 15, 2026. Employment figures are from Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey for September 2026. Mortgage rates are the best tracked uninsured 5-year rates as of September 30, 2026 and change often. All mortgages are subject to lender approval. Josh Tagg, Mortgages for Less, a team at Indi Mortgage.
