4,091 sales in a single month, homes selling in twenty days, and the Bank of Canada’s first rate hike landing right in the middle of it.
In March 2022, Calgary recorded 4,091 sales — the most of any month since at least 2014 — as the benchmark home price reached $537,400, up 2.8% on the month and 21.9% from a year earlier. A typical home sold in 20 days, and detached houses in 14. Inventory rose to 4,389 homes but supply held at just 1.1 months. This was also the month the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate for the first time since 2018. Apartment condos, at $265,400, were up 5.9% year-over-year.
March 2022 at a glance
March 2022 was the busiest month in Calgary’s recorded housing data: 4,091 homes sold, beating the previous high of 3,205 set in April 2021 by more than a quarter. The benchmark price rose 2.8% to $537,400, up 21.9% year-over-year, and a typical property sold in 20 days. It was also the month the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates, its first increase since 2018. Both of those things happening in the same four weeks is not a coincidence.
Calgary prices over time
| Year | Benchmark price | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $459,500 | — |
| 2015 | $448,800 | ▼ -2.3% |
| 2016 | $434,100 | ▼ -3.3% |
| 2017 | $433,200 | ▼ -0.2% |
| 2018 | $424,600 | ▼ -2% |
| 2019 | $415,900 | ▼ -2% |
| 2020 | $421,300 | ▲ +1.3% |
| 2021 | $463,900 | ▲ +10.1% |
| 2022 (to March) | $537,400 | ▲ +15.8% |
Sales, listings and inventory
| Month | Sales | New listings | Inventory | Days on market | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 2021 | 3,205 | 4,675 | 6,077 | 33 | $450,400 |
| May 2021 | 2,981 | 4,562 | 6,789 | 32 | $454,800 |
| June 2021 | 2,914 | 4,134 | 6,920 | 34 | $457,900 |
| July 2021 | 2,314 | 3,298 | 6,682 | 40 | $459,700 |
| August 2021 | 2,146 | 2,823 | 6,065 | 42 | $459,200 |
| September 2021 | 2,156 | 2,906 | 5,619 | 44 | $457,900 |
| October 2021 | 2,184 | 2,501 | 4,875 | 43 | $460,100 |
| November 2021 | 2,108 | 1,999 | 3,932 | 47 | $461,000 |
| December 2021 | 1,737 | 1,230 | 2,608 | 47 | $463,900 |
| January 2022 | 2,004 | 2,474 | 2,627 | 44 | $495,300 |
| February 2022 | 3,293 | 4,651 | 3,607 | 25 | $522,900 |
| March 2022 | 4,091 | 5,492 | 4,389 | 20 | $537,400 |
The headline numbers
| Metric | March 2022 | vs prev month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark price | $537,400 | ▲ +2.8% | ▲ +21.9% |
| Sales | 4,091 | ▲ +24.2% | ▲ +40.9% |
| New listings | 5,492 | ▲ +18.1% | ▲ +23.7% |
| Inventory | 4,389 | ▲ +21.7% | ▼ -19.1% |
| Days on market | 20 | ▼ -5 days | ▼ -15 days |
A look by property type
| Property type | Benchmark | vs last year | Sales | Days on mkt | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $638,300 | ▲ +23.9% | 2,267 | 14 | 1.0 |
| Semi-detached | $572,400 | ▲ +39.2% | 345 | 20 | 1.1 |
| Row / townhouse | $351,600 | ▲ +22.1% | 709 | 19 | 0.9 |
| Apartment condo | $265,400 | ▲ +5.9% | 770 | 38 | 1.5 |
The rate hike pulled demand forward
When borrowing costs are expected to rise, buyers who already hold a rate hold have a powerful reason to transact before it expires — and buyers without one have a reason to get moving. A first rate increase, widely telegraphed, tends to concentrate demand into the weeks immediately around it rather than dampening it.
That is the most plausible reading of 4,091 sales. It was not a sudden burst of new demand so much as several months of demand arriving at once, ahead of a deadline everyone could see.
Twenty days, and the first signs of a ceiling
At 20 days city-wide and 14 for detached homes, March was the fastest market Calgary has recorded. But the monthly price gain slowed to 2.8%, down from 5.6% in February and 6.8% in January.
That deceleration, in the busiest month ever, is the detail worth noting. Record volume with slowing price growth usually means the market has found the limit of what buyers can pay — which, with rates now rising, is exactly what was about to constrain it.
Row homes and condos caught up fast
Row homes rose 22.1% year-over-year to $351,600, with supply at 0.9 months — tighter than detached. Apartment condos reached $265,400, up 5.9%, with supply down to 1.5 months and days on market cut from 57 to 38.
The affordability squeeze had pushed buyers steadily down the property ladder, and by March there was nowhere left with slack. Every single property type in Calgary was under 1.5 months of supply.
What this meant if you were buying
For anyone in the market that spring, the important recalculation was what rising rates would do to the amount they qualified for. Buyers qualify at a stress-tested rate above the one they actually pay, so each increase in the underlying rate reduces the maximum mortgage available — often by more than people expect.
The consequence is that a pre-approval issued in January might not have supported the same purchase price by summer. Anyone shopping through 2022 needed to re-check their number as rates moved, rather than assuming the figure from the start of the year still held.
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Source: CREB, March 2022 (City of Calgary geography). Prices shown are benchmark (HPI) values. Month-over-month compares to the prior month; year-over-year to the same month last year. The board may revise past months as late sales are recorded. Prepared by Mortgages for Less.
