Calgary Housing Market Update: October 2022
Sales down 15% on the year, yet supply tightening again — the most lopsided slowdown Calgary has had.
In October 2022, Calgary’s benchmark home price was $523,900 — down 0.7% from September but still 13.9% above October 2021. Sales fell 15% year-over-year to 1,857, while new listings dropped 17.2% to 2,174. Inventory fell 12.8% on the month to 3,889 homes, tightening supply to 2.1 months. A typical home took 40 days to sell. Apartment condos, at $277,800 and up 10.2% year-over-year, posted their strongest annual gain of the cycle.
October 2022 at a glance
By October, Calgary had been in a slowdown for five months and the market was tighter than when it started. Sales fell 15% year-over-year to 1,857, but new listings fell 17.2%, inventory dropped 12.8% on the month to 3,889 homes, and supply went from 2.4 months to 2.1. The benchmark eased 0.7% to $523,900. This was, by any conventional measure, still a seller’s market — one in which prices were drifting gently downward.
Calgary prices over time
| Year | Benchmark price | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $459,500 | — |
| 2015 | $448,800 | ▼ -2.3% |
| 2016 | $434,100 | ▼ -3.3% |
| 2017 | $433,200 | ▼ -0.2% |
| 2018 | $424,600 | ▼ -2% |
| 2019 | $415,900 | ▼ -2% |
| 2020 | $421,300 | ▲ +1.3% |
| 2021 | $463,900 | ▲ +10.1% |
| 2022 (to October) | $523,900 | ▲ +12.9% |
Sales, listings and inventory
| Month | Sales | New listings | Inventory | Days on market | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2021 | 2,108 | 1,999 | 3,932 | 47 | $461,000 |
| December 2021 | 1,737 | 1,230 | 2,608 | 47 | $463,900 |
| January 2022 | 2,004 | 2,474 | 2,627 | 44 | $495,300 |
| February 2022 | 3,293 | 4,651 | 3,607 | 25 | $522,900 |
| March 2022 | 4,091 | 5,492 | 4,389 | 20 | $537,400 |
| April 2022 | 3,399 | 4,585 | 4,874 | 22 | $544,300 |
| May 2022 | 3,063 | 4,297 | 5,214 | 25 | $546,000 |
| June 2022 | 2,839 | 4,055 | 5,404 | 27 | $543,900 |
| July 2022 | 2,249 | 3,178 | 5,343 | 31 | $539,900 |
| August 2022 | 2,133 | 2,718 | 4,783 | 35 | $531,800 |
| September 2022 | 1,894 | 2,626 | 4,461 | 39 | $527,400 |
| October 2022 | 1,857 | 2,174 | 3,889 | 40 | $523,900 |
The headline numbers
| Metric | October 2022 | vs prev month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark price | $523,900 | ▼ -0.7% | ▲ +13.9% |
| Sales | 1,857 | ▼ -2% | ▼ -15% |
| New listings | 2,174 | ▼ -17.2% | ▼ -13.1% |
| Inventory | 3,889 | ▼ -12.8% | ▼ -20.2% |
| Days on market | 40 | ▲ +1 day | ▼ -3 days |
A look by property type
| Property type | Benchmark | vs last year | Sales | Days on mkt | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $623,900 | ▲ +15.3% | 942 | 36 | 2.1 |
| Semi-detached | $558,700 | ▲ +30.6% | 158 | 39 | 2.1 |
| Row / townhouse | $361,000 | ▲ +20.2% | 320 | 37 | 1.5 |
| Apartment condo | $277,800 | ▲ +10.2% | 437 | 52 | 2.6 |
It wasn’t a buyer’s market, and here’s the test
The standard definition is straightforward: under two months of supply favours sellers, four to six is balanced, above six favours buyers. Calgary at 2.1 months in October 2022 was close to the tightest end of that scale.
The confusion came from prices drifting down at the same time. But easing prices with tight supply is a market adjusting to a change in what buyers can borrow — not one where buyers hold the cards. Buyers had more time than in the spring, and that was it.
Where the softness actually was
Detached homes had fallen from $648,500 in May to $623,900 — about $24,600 off the peak, or 3.8%. That was where the adjustment landed, because that’s where the affordability constraint bit hardest as rates rose.
Below that, nothing was falling. Row homes were $361,000, within $2,700 of their peak. Apartment condos were at $277,800, up 10.2% year-over-year and their strongest annual gain of the cycle. If you were shopping in the lower half of Calgary’s market, you weren’t seeing a correction at all.
The listings drought
2,174 new listings in October was 13.1% fewer than October 2021 and the lowest October in the record to that point. Sellers had simply withdrawn from the market.
The reason was rational. Selling meant buying again at a higher rate, and for most owners that arithmetic didn’t work. The ‘rate lock-in’ effect — homeowners staying put because moving means giving up a cheap mortgage — was becoming the dominant force in Canadian housing supply, and Calgary was no exception.
What this meant if you were buying
October 2022 offered a specific and narrow opportunity: detached homes, where prices had actually come down about 4% from peak and competition had eased considerably. Everywhere else in Calgary, the market had barely moved.
If you were buying, the thing worth getting right was the structure of the mortgage rather than the timing of the purchase. Prepayment privileges, portability if you might move, and the penalty calculation if you needed to break early all matter more when rates are high and expected to change — because the odds you’ll want to refinance before the term ends go up considerably.
Frequently asked questions
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Prepayment terms and penalty calculations matter far more in a high-rate market. Let’s make sure your mortgage is structured for what comes next.
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Source: CREB, October 2022 (City of Calgary geography). Prices shown are benchmark (HPI) values. Month-over-month compares to the prior month; year-over-year to the same month last year. The board may revise past months as late sales are recorded. Prepared by Mortgages for Less.
