Quick answer: Calgary and Edmonton are the number one and number two cities in Canada for high-ratio mortgage applications at one of the country’s mortgage default insurers. In 2026 year-to-date they each account for roughly 9% of its national applications — ahead of Toronto and Montreal. Alberta is 12.2% of Canada’s population but about a quarter of that insured book. The reason is not an employment boom. It is price: the insured mortgage market is where first-time buyers live, and Alberta is where first-time buyers can still transact.
The ranking almost nobody expects
Ask anyone in this industry to name Canada’s biggest mortgage markets and you will get Toronto and Vancouver, in that order, every time. That answer is correct if you are measuring dollars. It is wrong if you are measuring people.
At a broker professional development event in Calgary in , one of Canada’s mortgage default insurers presented its top cities by high-ratio application volume — high-ratio meaning less than 20% down, which is very close to a definition of the first-time buyer market.
Calgary came first and Edmonton second, at roughly 9% of national applications each. Toronto was third, Montreal fourth, and Vancouver a distant fifth at around 4%. After that the numbers fall away quickly — Ottawa, Winnipeg and Hamilton each sit between 2% and 3.5%, and every other major city is below 2%.
Calgary and Edmonton have traded first and second place for three years. Edmonton led in 2024 and 2025; Calgary took the top spot in 2026. Together they write about 18% of that insurer’s national insured volume — more than double Toronto’s share.
Toronto’s climb over those three years — it has gained roughly three percentage points of national share — is worth flagging, because it has an obvious cause: the December 2024 increase in the insured price cap from $1 million to $1.5 million brought a chunk of the Toronto market back into eligibility. That change did for Toronto exactly what its supporters said it would. It simply did not do much of anything for Alberta, where it applies to under 2% of files — the subject of part one of this series.
You do not have to take a presentation’s word for it
City-level numbers come from a presentation, so here is the independent check. Canada’s private mortgage insurers file quarterly portfolio disclosures with the regulator that break new business down by province. I calculated Alberta’s share of the units directly from those filings, across the last five quarters.
Ontario is the largest province in the book, as you would expect from the province holding the largest share of the country’s people. But Alberta, with 12.2% of Canada’s population, writes about a quarter of the insured mortgages — running between 24% and 27% in every one of the last five quarters, against Ontario’s 28% to 32%. That is roughly double Alberta’s demographic weight, quarter after quarter, and it is visible in a regulatory filing rather than a sales slide.
The popular take: “Alberta is a boom-and-bust story”
The argument you hear: Alberta housing is an oil trade. People pile in when energy is strong, the market overheats, prices spike, and then the cycle turns and everyone leaves again. On this reading, the last few years of Alberta strength are a temporary migration wave that is already reversing — interprovincial migration peaked in 2023/24 and has been falling since, so the story is over.
The migration half of that is factually right, and I am not going to soften it. Alberta’s net interprovincial inflow did peak and it is cooling.
| Quarter | Net migrants from other provinces |
|---|---|
| 2024 Q4 | +4,993 |
| 2025 Q1 | +7,176 |
| 2025 Q2 | +6,187 |
| 2025 Q3 | +5,652 |
| 2025 Q4 | +3,684 |
Q4 2025 is a real drop — roughly a third off the prior quarter, and down from 4,993 in the same quarter a year earlier. But look at the sign. It is still positive, and Alberta has now recorded the largest net interprovincial gain of any province or territory for fourteen consecutive quarters. Ontario, over the same stretch, has been losing people — a net loss of 1,598 in Q4 2025 alone. A slowdown in a large positive number is not a reversal.
The data-first read: it is price, not jobs
Here is where I think the boom-and-bust frame genuinely misreads what is happening, and the insurer’s account executive made the point better than most economists have: the people moving to Alberta are not, for the most part, moving for work. They are moving for price, and remote work lets them keep the job they already have.
That is a small observation with large consequences. An oil-driven migration wave is cyclical by definition — it turns when the rig count turns. A price-driven migration wave is structural, because the thing driving it is the gap between what a house costs in Toronto and what it costs in Calgary, and that gap has not closed. If anything it is being held open by the fact that Ontario prices, while falling, are falling from a much higher base.
You can see the mechanism in the insured data. The insured market is the entry-level market — more than 99% of the individual insurance in those filings is high-ratio business. A city that is affordable to a first-time buyer generates a lot of insured applications. A city that is not generates very few, because entry-level buyers there either cannot qualify or are not buying at all. Alberta’s outsized share of the insured book is, in effect, a direct measurement of where in Canada a normal household can still complete a purchase.
Where in Alberta the volume actually is
Edmonton and Calgary each take roughly 35% of Alberta’s insured high-ratio applications, and the split between them has barely moved in three years. Red Deer, Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray each sit near 2.5%, Lethbridge just under 2%, and Medicine Hat around 1%.
Edmonton and Calgary together are about 71% of Alberta’s insured volume. The secondary cities are small individually but remarkably steady — each holds its share year after year, which is not what a boom-and-bust market looks like.
What this means for you
If you are buying in Calgary or Edmonton, you are in the deepest first-time buyer market in the country. That matters practically: lenders and insurers build policy, staffing and appetite around where their volume is. Alberta files are not an exception being squeezed through a Toronto-shaped process. They are the main event.
Be careful reading national housing coverage as though it described your street. National numbers are dominated by Toronto and Vancouver, which are doing something different from Alberta right now. In August 2026 Calgary’s benchmark price was $569,800 and Greater Edmonton’s median was $439,000, with 3.9 and 3.8 months of supply respectively — balanced markets with real negotiating room. That is not the story in a national headline.
If you moved here from Ontario or the Atlantic and kept your job, say so early. Out-of-province income with a remote arrangement is completely financeable, but it is a file that needs to be structured properly from the start — employment letters that address the remote arrangement, and a lender whose policy actually contemplates it. Getting that wrong at submission is a slow and avoidable problem.
Buying in Calgary or Edmonton, or moving here from out of province?
I work these files every day, including remote-employment income from Ontario and the Atlantic.
Honest limits on this data
- This is one insurer’s book, not the national market. Canada has three mortgage default insurers, and this is the book of one private one that competes for business. Its Alberta weighting almost certainly exceeds the insured market as a whole. The honest claim is “Calgary and Edmonton are this insurer’s top two cities,” not “Calgary and Edmonton are Canada’s largest mortgage markets.”
- High-ratio is a proxy for first-time buyers, not a synonym. Some high-ratio applicants are repeat buyers with small down payments, and plenty of first-time buyers put 20% or more down and never appear in insured data at all.
- The city figures are from a presentation, not a filing. The provincial shares in the second table are independently verifiable; the city rankings are not.
- Migration data lags. The Q4 2025 reading is the most recent shown and the trend since then is not yet visible. If the cooling continued through 2026, the picture changes.
- “Price, not jobs” is an interpretation, offered by an experienced account executive and consistent with the data, but it is not something these numbers prove on their own.
Frequently asked questions
What is the biggest city in Canada for first-time buyer mortgages?
By insured high-ratio application volume at one of Canada’s mortgage default insurers, Calgary ranks first in 2026 year-to-date at roughly 9% of national applications, with Edmonton second at a shade under that and Toronto third. Insured high-ratio lending is the closest available proxy for the first-time buyer market.
Why does Alberta have so many insured mortgages?
Because insured mortgages are entry-level mortgages, and Alberta is where entry-level buyers can still transact. Calgary’s benchmark price was $569,800 in August 2026 and Greater Edmonton’s median was $439,000. Alberta holds 12.2% of Canada’s population but roughly a quarter of that insurer’s insured book.
Is migration to Alberta slowing down in 2026?
Yes, but it remains positive. Alberta’s net interprovincial migration fell to +3,684 in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from +7,176 in the first quarter of that year. Even so, it was the largest net gain of any province for the fourteenth consecutive quarter, while Ontario lost 1,598 people.
Are people moving to Alberta for jobs or for housing prices?
The insurer’s read, presented in September 2026, is that price is the driver rather than employment — remote work allows many arrivals to keep their existing out-of-province jobs. That matters because a price-driven migration pattern is structural rather than cyclical, unlike the oil-driven waves Alberta saw historically.
Can I get a mortgage in Alberta if my employer is in Ontario?
Yes. Remote employment income from an out-of-province employer is financeable with most lenders, but the file needs to be structured for it — particularly the employment letter and the choice of lender, since policies on remote arrangements vary. Raise it at the start rather than at submission.
Which Alberta cities have the most insured mortgage activity?
Edmonton and Calgary together account for about 71% of Alberta’s insured high-ratio applications, roughly 35% each. Red Deer, Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray each hold about 2.5%, with Lethbridge just under 2% and Medicine Hat around 1%.
- Did the 30-year amortization actually help first-time buyers qualify?
- Why Calgary and Edmonton are Canada’s two biggest cities for first-time buyer mortgages (you are here)
- Is Alberta still affordable for first-time buyers?
This is commentary, not mortgage advice — every file is different and yours deserves an actual look. Rates, policy and market figures are as of and change without notice. Insurer figures are drawn from a Canadian mortgage default insurer’s public quarterly regulatory disclosures and from company data shared with mortgage brokers at a professional development event in September 2026. Population and migration data from Statistics Canada. Josh Tagg is a licensed mortgage broker in Alberta.
