Inventory down 13% in a single month and supply back under two and a half months — the autumn squeeze had begun.
In October 2021, Calgary’s benchmark home price was $460,100 — up 0.5% from September and 8.9% from a year earlier. Sales held at 2,184 while inventory fell 13.2% on the month to 4,875 homes, 16.2% below last October. That tightened supply to 2.2 months, the lowest since April. A typical home sold in 43 days. Detached homes were at $540,900 with just 1.6 months of supply; apartment condos, at $252,200, were up only 0.4% year-over-year.
October 2021 at a glance
October was the month Calgary’s quiet autumn stopped being quiet. Prices resumed climbing — up 0.5% to $460,100 — but the real movement was in supply. Inventory fell 13.2% in a single month to 4,875 homes, its steepest drop of the year, and new listings fell 13.9%. With sales steady at 2,184, that pushed supply down to 2.2 months from 2.6. Detached houses were down to 1.6 months. The market was tightening again, and faster than most people noticed at the time.
Calgary prices over time
| Year | Benchmark price | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $459,500 | — |
| 2015 | $448,800 | ▼ -2.3% |
| 2016 | $434,100 | ▼ -3.3% |
| 2017 | $433,200 | ▼ -0.2% |
| 2018 | $424,600 | ▼ -2% |
| 2019 | $415,900 | ▼ -2% |
| 2020 | $421,300 | ▲ +1.3% |
| 2021 (to October) | $460,100 | ▲ +9.2% |
Sales, listings and inventory
| Month | Sales | New listings | Inventory | Days on market | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 2020 | 1,437 | 1,727 | 5,020 | 55 | $423,300 |
| December 2020 | 1,199 | 1,172 | 3,672 | 59 | $421,300 |
| January 2021 | 1,207 | 2,250 | 4,038 | 57 | $422,900 |
| February 2021 | 1,831 | 2,850 | 4,521 | 45 | $430,100 |
| March 2021 | 2,903 | 4,440 | 5,422 | 35 | $440,900 |
| April 2021 | 3,205 | 4,675 | 6,077 | 33 | $450,400 |
| May 2021 | 2,981 | 4,562 | 6,789 | 32 | $454,800 |
| June 2021 | 2,914 | 4,134 | 6,920 | 34 | $457,900 |
| July 2021 | 2,314 | 3,298 | 6,682 | 40 | $459,700 |
| August 2021 | 2,146 | 2,823 | 6,065 | 42 | $459,200 |
| September 2021 | 2,156 | 2,906 | 5,619 | 44 | $457,900 |
| October 2021 | 2,184 | 2,501 | 4,875 | 43 | $460,100 |
The headline numbers
| Metric | October 2021 | vs prev month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark price | $460,100 | ▲ +0.5% | ▲ +8.9% |
| Sales | 2,184 | ▲ +1.3% | ▲ +23.9% |
| New listings | 2,501 | ▼ -13.9% | ▲ +1.7% |
| Inventory | 4,875 | ▼ -13.2% | ▼ -16.2% |
| Days on market | 43 | ▼ -1 day | ▼ -10 days |
A look by property type
| Property type | Benchmark | vs last year | Sales | Days on mkt | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $540,900 | ▲ +10.5% | 1,331 | 39 | 1.6 |
| Semi-detached | $427,800 | ▲ +8.9% | 222 | 39 | 1.9 |
| Row / townhouse | $300,300 | ▲ +7.3% | 271 | 46 | 3.0 |
| Apartment condo | $252,200 | ▲ +0.4% | 360 | 59 | 4.3 |
Inventory is the leading indicator
Prices are the number everyone watches and the slowest to react. Supply moves first. Calgary had spent July through September looking flat on price while inventory quietly fell every month, and October is where that finally showed up in the price line.
At 2.2 months of supply, the market was back to roughly where it had been in the frantic spring. The difference was that nobody was talking about it, because the headline price had been boring for a quarter.
Detached supply hit 1.6 months
The detached benchmark reached $540,900, up 10.5% year-over-year, with just 1.6 months of supply — the tightest since April. Homes were taking 39 days to sell, which sounds relaxed, but that figure includes properties that had been sitting since summer at spring prices.
For a buyer, the practical reality was a shrinking pool. Fewer detached listings each month, steady demand, and a price that had started moving again is the setup that produces competition, usually with a lag of a month or two.
Condos ended the year where they started
Apartment condos were up 0.4% year-over-year at $252,200 — statistically the same price as October 2020, and almost exactly where they had been in January. Ten months of the strongest housing market in years had left Calgary’s condo segment essentially unchanged.
Supply there had improved considerably though, from 7.1 months in January to 4.3 in October. The overhang was clearing even if prices hadn’t responded, and that is usually the order these things happen in.
What this meant if you were buying
If you had been waiting out the autumn expecting the market to soften, October was the month to reconsider. Supply was tightening, prices had resumed rising, and the seasonal slowdown that usually arrives in November and December was going to start from a much lower inventory base than the year before.
For anyone whose pre-approval was from the spring, it was worth refreshing. Rate holds expire, and the amount you qualified for in April may not have been the amount you qualified for in October — particularly if your income or debts had changed.
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Source: CREB, October 2021 (City of Calgary geography). Prices shown are benchmark (HPI) values. Month-over-month compares to the prior month; year-over-year to the same month last year. The board may revise past months as late sales are recorded. Prepared by Mortgages for Less.
