For years, the housing market followed a fairly predictable pattern. People bought a starter home, upgraded as their family grew, and eventually downsized after the kids moved out.

That last step doesn’t happen quite as often these days.

A recent Canadian Mortgage Trends article highlighted a growing trend among homeowners over 55: they’d rather renovate their current home than sell it. Honestly, I can’t blame them. If you’ve finally figured out where you hid the Christmas decorations and which light switch controls the garage, why start over?

For Alberta’s first-time homebuyers, though, this trend could have some interesting consequences.

Fewer detached homes may become available

When someone sells a family home and moves into a condo or bungalow, it creates a ripple effect. A growing family buys that house, sells their smaller home, and that home often becomes available for a first-time buyer.

When people stay put, that chain never starts.

In Calgary and Edmonton, many older homeowners live in established neighbourhoods with larger lots, mature trees and homes that younger families would love to buy. If fewer of those homes come on the market, buyers may have fewer options and more competition.

It’s not all bad news

Before you panic and start looking at tents on Facebook Marketplace, there’s another side to this.

Many downsizers would normally be shopping for condos, townhouses and smaller homes. If they stay where they are, they aren’t competing with first-time buyers for those properties.

So while detached homes could become harder to find, condos and townhouses may actually face a little less competition.

As with most things in real estate, the answer is: “It depends.”

Alberta’s population is changing

This isn’t likely to be a short-term trend. Alberta’s senior population continues to grow, and many homeowners want to stay where they are for as long as possible.

That makes sense. Their neighbours know them, their favourite coffee shop knows their order, and they’ve already won the battle against that one squeaky stair that everyone else would trip over.

Many are renovating instead, adding features like walk-in showers, main-floor laundry or wider doorways so they can comfortably stay in their homes for years to come.

What does this mean for first-time buyers?

The biggest takeaway is that buyers shouldn’t count on a flood of older homes hitting the market anytime soon.

If you’re hoping to buy in an established neighbourhood, you may need a little more patience. You might also want to keep an open mind about townhouses, duplexes or newer communities that offer better value.

Buying a smaller home today and building equity is often a better strategy than waiting years for your dream detached home to magically appear. Unfortunately, the housing market has never been known for granting wishes.

We still need more housing

None of this means older homeowners should feel pressured to move. If aging in place is the right choice for them, that’s a good thing.

The real solution is building more housing.

Alberta needs more detached homes, townhouses, condos and seniors’ housing so every stage of life has suitable options. When there’s enough housing for everyone, first-time buyers don’t have to rely on someone else deciding it’s finally time to downsize.

If you’re wondering how today’s market affects your own buying plans, I’d be happy to walk you through your options. Every buyer’s situation is different, and having a solid mortgage plan can make all the difference when the right home finally comes along.