Calgary Housing Market Update: September 2022
Sales down 12% on the year and prices barely moving, because Calgary simply never built up the inventory a real correction requires.
In September 2022, Calgary’s benchmark home price was $527,400 — down 0.8% from August and 15.2% above September 2021. Sales fell 11.2% on the month to 1,894, down 12.2% year-over-year. Inventory fell 6.7% to 4,461 homes, 20.6% below a year earlier, so supply held at 2.4 months. A typical home took 39 days to sell, five days longer than a year before. Apartment condos, at $277,900, were up 9.8% year-over-year.
September 2022 at a glance
Nine months into a rate-tightening cycle that had cut what buyers could borrow substantially, Calgary’s benchmark price stood at $527,400 — down 3.4% from the May peak. Sales in September fell 12.2% year-over-year to 1,894. And yet supply was 2.4 months, tighter than a balanced market, because inventory had fallen 20.6% over the same twelve months. Calgary’s downturn was being held up by a shortage that predated it.
Calgary prices over time
| Year | Benchmark price | Change on the year |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | $459,500 | — |
| 2015 | $448,800 | ▼ -2.3% |
| 2016 | $434,100 | ▼ -3.3% |
| 2017 | $433,200 | ▼ -0.2% |
| 2018 | $424,600 | ▼ -2% |
| 2019 | $415,900 | ▼ -2% |
| 2020 | $421,300 | ▲ +1.3% |
| 2021 | $463,900 | ▲ +10.1% |
| 2022 (to September) | $527,400 | ▲ +13.7% |
Sales, listings and inventory
| Month | Sales | New listings | Inventory | Days on market | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2021 | 2,184 | 2,501 | 4,875 | 43 | $460,100 |
| November 2021 | 2,108 | 1,999 | 3,932 | 47 | $461,000 |
| December 2021 | 1,737 | 1,230 | 2,608 | 47 | $463,900 |
| January 2022 | 2,004 | 2,474 | 2,627 | 44 | $495,300 |
| February 2022 | 3,293 | 4,651 | 3,607 | 25 | $522,900 |
| March 2022 | 4,091 | 5,492 | 4,389 | 20 | $537,400 |
| April 2022 | 3,399 | 4,585 | 4,874 | 22 | $544,300 |
| May 2022 | 3,063 | 4,297 | 5,214 | 25 | $546,000 |
| June 2022 | 2,839 | 4,055 | 5,404 | 27 | $543,900 |
| July 2022 | 2,249 | 3,178 | 5,343 | 31 | $539,900 |
| August 2022 | 2,133 | 2,718 | 4,783 | 35 | $531,800 |
| September 2022 | 1,894 | 2,626 | 4,461 | 39 | $527,400 |
The headline numbers
| Metric | September 2022 | vs prev month | vs last year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark price | $527,400 | ▼ -0.8% | ▲ +15.2% |
| Sales | 1,894 | ▼ -11.2% | ▼ -12.2% |
| New listings | 2,626 | ▼ -3.4% | ▼ -9.6% |
| Inventory | 4,461 | ▼ -6.7% | ▼ -20.6% |
| Days on market | 39 | ▲ +4 days | ▼ -5 days |
A look by property type
| Property type | Benchmark | vs last year | Sales | Days on mkt | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | $628,000 | ▲ +16.8% | 968 | 36 | 2.3 |
| Semi-detached | $562,400 | ▲ +32.4% | 152 | 36 | 2.5 |
| Row / townhouse | $362,100 | ▲ +20.9% | 325 | 38 | 1.8 |
| Apartment condo | $277,900 | ▲ +9.8% | 449 | 46 | 2.8 |
The arithmetic of a shallow correction
Months of supply is inventory divided by sales, so a market can stay tight in two ways: lots of buyers, or very few listings. Through late 2022 Calgary was doing it the second way. Demand had fallen materially, but supply had fallen at least as much.
Compare the two years. In September 2021, Calgary had 5,619 homes for sale. In September 2022, 4,461 — during a slowdown. Buyers hoping the downturn would deliver both lower prices and more choice got neither.
Days on market: the one thing buyers did gain
At 39 days, homes took five days longer to sell than in September 2021, and nineteen days longer than March’s low of 20. That’s a genuine and meaningful shift.
It changed the texture of buying without changing the price. Offers with conditions were being accepted again. Buyers could view a property twice. Sellers who overpriced were sitting rather than getting rescued by a competing bid.
The condo market’s remarkable year
Apartment condos finished September at $277,900, up 9.8% year-over-year — their ninth consecutive month of accelerating or near-peak annual growth. Supply was 2.8 months and days on market 46.
It’s worth appreciating how complete the reversal was. In January 2021 Calgary condos had 7.1 months of supply and prices falling year-over-year. Twenty months later they were the city’s strongest segment. Affordability pressure, once it becomes the dominant force in a market, reshapes it from the bottom up.
What this meant if you were buying
Anyone waiting for Calgary to hand them a bargain was waiting for something the supply data said wasn’t coming. The realistic opportunity in late 2022 was better terms and less competition, not a materially lower price.
For buyers who did transact, the key decision was term length. With rates elevated and expected to eventually fall, the choice between a shorter fixed term, a longer one, and a variable rate had real consequences. That decision depends on your own tolerance for payment changes and how long you expect to stay — not on a forecast.
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Source: CREB, September 2022 (City of Calgary geography). Prices shown are benchmark (HPI) values. Month-over-month compares to the prior month; year-over-year to the same month last year. The board may revise past months as late sales are recorded. Prepared by Mortgages for Less.
