Bank of Canada Holds Rates Again: What It Means for Alberta Homeowners

July 15, 2026

The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25%. Learn what the July decision means for Alberta homebuyers, homeowners and mortgage rates.
Bank of Canada Holds Rates Again: What It Means for Alberta Homeowners

The Bank of Canada announced on July 15 that it is keeping its policy interest rate at 2.25%. This is the sixth consecutive rate announcement without a change, meaning the policy rate has been sitting in the same chair since October 2025 and apparently has no immediate plans to get up.

For Alberta homeowners, buyers and anyone approaching a mortgage renewal, the decision provides some short-term stability. However, it does not necessarily mean mortgage rates will remain exactly where they are.

Quick answer: The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on July 15, 2026 — the sixth consecutive announcement without a change, and the rate has been unchanged since October 2025. The Bank now expects the economy to grow just 0.7% in 2026, then 1.8% in 2027 and 2028, with unemployment at 6.5% in June. Headline inflation rose to 3.2% in May on higher gasoline prices, but was about 2.2% excluding gasoline and core inflation stayed near 2%, so the Bank is prepared to look through energy-driven inflation. For mortgages: prime rates and therefore variable-rate mortgages and HELOCs should not change from this announcement, while fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields and can move anyway. The next announcement is September 2, 2026.
2.25%
Policy rate, held July 15, 2026
6
Consecutive announcements, no change
3.2%
Headline inflation, May
Sept 2
Next rate announcement, 2026

Why did the Bank of Canada hold rates?

Canada’s economy has been weak, but the Bank believes conditions are beginning to improve. It estimates that economic growth picked up during the second quarter, while consumer spending, exports and business investment are showing signs of life.

The Bank now expects Canada’s economy to grow by only 0.7% in 2026, followed by growth of 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. The labour market also remains soft, with unemployment sitting at 6.5% in June.

In other words, the economy is improving, but it is not exactly sprinting up the stairs.

What about inflation?

A woman with papers outside a gas station, beside gauges reading headline inflation 3.2% and underlying inflation 2.2% near target.
Strip gasoline out and the same month reads 2.2%. That one choice is why the Bank could hold instead of hike.

Headline inflation increased to 3.2% in May, largely because of higher gasoline prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Once gasoline is removed from the calculation, inflation was much closer to the Bank’s target at 2.2%, while core inflation remained near 2%.

That distinction is important. The Bank does not want to raise interest rates unnecessarily in response to a temporary jump in energy prices, particularly while other parts of the economy remain fragile. Capital Economics also believes the Bank is prepared to look through energy-driven inflation rather than automatically responding with higher rates.

The Bank currently expects inflation to remain elevated over the near term before gradually returning to approximately 2% in early 2027. Of course, that forecast depends heavily on oil prices and global events—two things that have never been especially good at following a tidy schedule.

What does this mean for Alberta?

The relationship between oil and Alberta’s economy creates a bit of a balancing act. Higher energy prices can support investment, employment and provincial revenues. The Bank specifically expects business investment to receive a near-term boost from the oil and gas sector.

At the same time, higher gasoline and transportation costs can increase inflation across Canada. If those costs begin spreading into a wider range of goods and services, the Bank may eventually need to consider raising rates.

For now, that does not appear to be its preferred direction.

What does the rate hold mean for mortgages?

Because the policy rate did not change, most lenders are unlikely to change their prime rates immediately. Borrowers with variable-rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit should therefore see no direct change resulting from this announcement.

Fixed mortgage rates work differently. They are influenced primarily by Government of Canada bond yields, which can move even when the Bank of Canada remains on hold. A rate hold is reassuring, but it does not freeze every mortgage rate in place.

Anyone buying a home, renewing or refinancing should still compare available options rather than waiting for a dramatic rate announcement. Sometimes the best mortgage decision is less about predicting the Bank of Canada and more about choosing the right term, lender and flexibility for your own plans.

When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?

Josh Tagg at his desk on a video call with a couple, writing on a pad headed 'Discovery Call' listing goals, timeframe and budget.
Six weeks between announcements is plenty of time to review a renewal properly — and a lot better than doing it the week it matures.

The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is scheduled for September 2, 2026. If you have any questions or would like some free personalized advice, please contact me.

How an Alberta mortgage broker helps when the Bank of Canada is on hold

A hold is a quiet window, not a reason to wait. This is what we do with it:

  • We compare fixed against variable using your real payment, because a hold protects prime but does nothing for bond yields.
  • We check whether your variable rate or HELOC is genuinely unaffected by this announcement, or whether something else in your file has moved.
  • We start renewals and refinances early, so you are comparing lenders instead of reacting to a maturity date.
  • We weigh term, lender and flexibility alongside the rate — prepayment privileges and penalties often matter more than a few basis points.
  • We keep an eye on Alberta-specific pressure, where oil prices support jobs and provincial revenues while raising costs at the pump.
  • We give you a plan that holds up whether the Bank cuts, holds or hikes on September 2.

Buying, renewing or refinancing before September 2?

Let’s look at what this hold actually changes for your mortgage — and what it doesn’t.

Apply Online → Book a Discovery Call → Serving Calgary, Edmonton & all of Alberta · Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage

The July 2026 rate hold: common questions

Did the Bank of Canada change its interest rate in July 2026?
No. On July 15 the Bank announced it is keeping its policy interest rate at 2.25%. This is the sixth consecutive rate announcement without a change, meaning the policy rate has been unchanged since October 2025.
Why did the Bank of Canada hold rates?
Canada’s economy has been weak, but the Bank believes conditions are beginning to improve. It estimates growth picked up during the second quarter, while consumer spending, exports and business investment are showing signs of life. The Bank now expects the economy to grow by only 0.7% in 2026, followed by 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028, and the labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in June.
What happened to inflation in May 2026?
Headline inflation increased to 3.2% in May, largely because of higher gasoline prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East. Once gasoline is removed from the calculation, inflation was much closer to the Bank’s target at 2.2%, while core inflation remained near 2%. The Bank does not want to raise rates unnecessarily in response to a temporary jump in energy prices.
When does the Bank of Canada expect inflation to return to 2%?
The Bank currently expects inflation to remain elevated over the near term before gradually returning to approximately 2% in early 2027. That forecast depends heavily on oil prices and global events, neither of which reliably follows a tidy schedule.
Does this rate hold change my variable-rate mortgage or HELOC?
Not directly. Because the policy rate did not change, most lenders are unlikely to change their prime rates immediately, so borrowers with variable-rate mortgages or home equity lines of credit should see no direct change resulting from this announcement.
Can fixed mortgage rates still move while the Bank is on hold?
Yes. Fixed mortgage rates are influenced primarily by Government of Canada bond yields, which can move even when the Bank of Canada remains on hold. A rate hold is reassuring, but it does not freeze every mortgage rate in place. Anyone buying, renewing or refinancing should still compare available options rather than waiting for a dramatic rate announcement.
When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?
The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is scheduled for September 2, 2026.

This article is general information for Alberta homebuyers and homeowners, not financial, mortgage, tax or legal advice. Interest rates, Bank of Canada decisions, economic forecasts and lender pricing change over time, and every mortgage is subject to lender approval. Please speak with a licensed mortgage professional about your specific circumstances. Mortgages for Less with INDI Mortgage.

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